Breakout BULLISH
The idealised template the engine measures against, with the trigger level that separates a forming pattern from an active breakout.
Measured results — live, not backtested
The tracker is collecting live data for this pattern — win rates appear here once breakout signals have resolved. Unlike backtests, these numbers are measured forward on live markets: every signal counted, none cherry-picked. See the methodology →
What a breakout is
The simplest pattern in the library: price trades in a defined range, repeatedly testing a ceiling, and then closes decisively through it. What makes a breakout meaningful isn't the level itself but the compression before it — each test of resistance on smaller pullbacks shows buyers absorbing supply at progressively higher prices.
The psychology behind it
A range is an argument between buyers and sellers at a price both consider roughly fair. Every touch of the ceiling transfers shares from sellers to buyers; every shallower dip shows dip-sellers losing conviction. The break is the moment the argument resolves — and it recruits three groups at once: breakout buyers entering on the signal, shorts covering positions that leaned on the resistance, and sidelined money that was waiting for confirmation. That triple demand is why genuine breakouts move fast.
How MKTDATA detects it
The template describes a flat-to-rising consolidation resolving upward through a trigger zone. The engine scores how tightly the live path matches that shape, whether volume expands into the move (the classic tell separating breakouts from drift), and how price behaves at the trigger — status advances from Near breakout to Breakout active on the crossing close and to Confirmed when the level holds on the next candle.
Trading notes
The best-documented failure mode is the false breakout: price pokes through, finds no follow-through, and snaps back into the range — often running stops on both sides. Traditional filters are volume (expansion on the break), the retest (see the breakout-retest pattern), and time-of-day (opening-range breaks behave differently from mid-session ones). The invalidation is a return inside the range; a breakout that immediately fails often travels hard the other way.
Stocks matching this pattern right now
| Stock | Match | Formed | Status | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC US | 77% | 100% | Confirmed | +0.55% |
| AWK US | 72% | 100% | Confirmed | +0.53% |
| FE US | 72% | 100% | Confirmed | +0.48% |
| PEG US | 69% | 100% | Confirmed | +0.51% |
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